Both India and China are still civilizations returning to their historical place in the world following long periods of historic decline. During the past 75 years both India and China have become the world’s 4th and 2th largest economies respectively. India has surpassed China to be the world’s most populous nation and has in the past 15 years lifted more people out of poverty than any other nation. Above image of the period of the Great Interchange which the longest peaceful Interchange of culture, philosophy, science and people between two civilizations in human history. The period began in 500 B.C. and spanned until 1157 A.D.
Many Indians commit a disservice of viewpoint in comparison with China, as they view the current situation in static terms. In 1947, India started out as a nation state with regaining freedom as a fractured country. Rather than not accepting the culmination of British divide and rule policies, our leaders at the time accepted partition. There is no doubt, that Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru knew that Pakistan was being created for Western interests. He simply accepted it as he would later state, "I was advancing in age." He wanted to be Prime Minister and this went beyond using a delay of a few years for the Independence of India, of keeping it undivided. Hence, a state was created which had an archrival supported by the West at inception.
India would endure the largest forced migration in Human history in 1947, millions lost their lives.
Pakistan was directed by the British Empire to ensure India had no border with Afghanistan, as they already knew quite well that the Soviet Union was approaching India, and India would gain energy Independence via a direct trade route to Central Asia bypassing Pakistan. Hence the British allowed Pakistan to attack Kashmir and retain the area which would have given India a direct land border with Afghanistan. Most Indians including economist today do not put up real calculated price the Indian economy paid for not having this access.
India would start out at War and bankrupt. Nehru did not even attempt to solve the Kashmir issue via military action continuing. Lord Mountbatten who was the Governor of General of India, advised Prime Minister Nehru to take the issue to the United Nations, it was already a fait accompli as Britain and the US both neither condemned the Pakistani invasion of Kashmir, nor offered a realistic solution for it. A divided Kashmir emerged and India never would be able to solve this.
India in 1947 was a nation of rolling epidemics, caloric deficiencies for most Indians and a life expectancy which had fallen to 32 with a literacy rate of 9% India had been the world’s largest economy and wealthiest export nation controlling over 25% of global G.D.P. before British Colonial Rule which began after 1757.
So when we look at an India in this state in 1947, with a life expectancy of 32 years and a literacy rate of 9%, from this state began the journey of India. China was ahead of India in life expectancy, literacy rates and had nearly double India’s population. We cannot omit these facts, simply because we possessed a far more advanced railway system and a potentially open economy, which Nehru would close by 1957, we by no matrix were ahead of China in a meaningful way. In 1947, India needed to have two goals, raise life expectancy and rapidly increase literacy. This meant our food production needed to climb exponentially, most of our people only had enough food to eat once a day and even that stopped after Pakistan was decoupled in 1951. It took Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s decisive nationalization of India's banking sector to force lending to finance the green revolution in the early 1970s. Her accomplishment remains the work of legend. By 1975 India was food sufficient for the first time since 1757. Two to three generations of Indians have grown up without the looming spire of epidemics and hunger. Life expectancy climbed. In 1974 Indira Gandhi gave the go ahead for Smiling Buddha. As the nation celebrated the Birthday of Raja Sudarath Guatam (The Buddha), India became an atomic power on May 18, 1974. The reality is that India became resurgent civilization at this point. The fear of invasion, the inability to survive vanished and Indians not being able to accomplish goals in the modetn world vanished.
Today India’s population exceeds that of China. A skilled population has largely developed and life expectancy is in the low 70s. Regardless of how India goes forward it is now the 4th largest economy. It does not need to be the world's largest economy as it was before Western colonialism to be called a success, but it shall be counted in the top three within years. India cannot pursue a path replicating China’s manufacturing centric path, as this would discard India's actual strengths. India is an IT driven super power already. India has more highly educated individuals in a true sense than any other country in the world including China. India has more people that speak 3 or more languages than any other country as well.
India made crucial mistakes in dealing with China after 1949. Prime Minister Nehru shaped India’s policies and outlook towards China based upon his own understanding of Chinese History and the remarkable impact India had in shaping China’s consciousness during the age of the Great Interchange. This period which began in 500 B.C. spanned 1500 years until North India fell under a brutal Islamic Invasion which ended India’s University Systems and culminated with the burning of Nalanda University by an Islamic fanatic known as Khilji around 1150 A.D. The resultant spread of Buddhism and Indian Dharmic concepts along with Indian Mathematics, Astronomy and interchange of Indian values clouds the current actions of the CCP to distance Chinese association with India historically. The complexity cannot be overlooked nor deemed not important to analyzing the effect upon future dialogue and development. The CCP came to power with the mission of changing Chinese culture from one which was based on a social hierarchy much like that which was found in India, and a system of education which preserved this. In undoing much of what constituted the norms of Chinese culture the influence of India was negated and the reforms which India made after 1947 were largely not acknowledged. Hence India is depicted as being ridden in superstition and the past, rather than a civilization which has changed dramatically without the radical use of Communist theology. Prime Minister Nehru failed to see the rise of China based upon an ideology of misrepresentation of history and pursuant to superficial use of economic progress not balanced with the principles of India’s historic relationship with China.
To simply look at China having a manufacturing advantage based on its opening to the United States in 1970, is an obvious conclusion, however China has several advantages. The U.S. was far more familiar with China historically and this translated into preference for dealing with China even though it was at diametric opposites for decades after the Communist Revolution in 1949. The U.S. inherited much of its views of India from the British Empire’s false depictions of India during the early 20th Century. While the purpose of this effort was to prevent America from supporting Indian Freedom Fighters, the unintended effects have been a continuous underestimation of India’s civilizational continuity and actual unity of Indians. China under the CCP has also miscalculated based on its own adaptation of viewing India via misrepresented colonial interpretation. Hence China faces many surprises in dealing with India as its foreign policies are doomed to failure in this regard.
While it may well be that China has a GDP which is 4–5 times greater than that of India, the growth rates favor India going forward. Politically, China will have to reform its Communist one party state at some point in the future. Statistically, 98% of all declared Communist states have ceased to exist and have adopted multiparty systems of governments. The change in governance has always shown that economic output was often overstated and regional rights have either been upgraded or geographic divisions follow. China is avoiding this at all cost, and the battle is far from won. India in economic size is only 16 years behind China according Bernstein Analysis. Hence India, even if not achieving China’s manufacturing dominance will still end up with a similarly large economy. Whether India is the third largest economy in the world or the world’s second largest economy is a matter of triviality, as India is the world’s largest Democracy, it has the world’s largest population and workforce, and India is not facing the unenviable position of knowing that is facing constant danger of having to implement governmental reform which could result in uncertain outcomes. India and China comparatively are both nations and ancient civilizations that have led global economic growth throughout history. Both have risen to be counted in the top 4 economies in the world. The real prediction is that India and China will develop distinct core advantages in the coming 50 years, which will become the basis of sustainable trade and the establishment of a multipolar world.