Sholay if rereleased would have earned 10–15 crores (as it does on every re release including the latest 3D version). But if Sholay was made as a 2026 film and released it would have shattered the box office records for sure.
Sholay earned way more than 2000 crores in current value. To give a reference of the magnitude of its success, before Sholay the biggest grossing film of India was Mughal E Aazam which collected 5 crores. Sholay collected 15 crores in its original run (30 crores gross) and further 14 crores in its rerun (28 crores gross). Sholay and HAHK are the only two movies to triple the existing industry hit in Hindi Films (Disco Dancer and Dangal if you include overseas). This was also the film led the trade reviewers to change their verdict of the film 4 times
Now would the film earn 2000 crores in today's time. Let's see-
The Factors in Favour of the film- Sholay released during emergency when political conditions were hostile and this was a year when Violence and Angry characters became the normal reflecting the prevalent socio-political conditions. In the recent times there is no emergency politically but the cult of violence has emerged greatly in the past few years with ultra violence replacing the soft films. Sholay would have benefited from the increasing taste for violent films. However Sholay would not have got a U certificate in today's time.
Another thing is length. 3+ hours movies are becoming big Blockbusters in the past few years with Animal, Dhurandhar etc. also like the above mentioned movies, Sholay is also technically well made with great production values and good music.
Lastly the word of mouth.. Sholay grew massively with word of mouth and that would lead the film to gain sizeable business week after week.
What may go against the film-
Inspirations - In 1975 there was hardly any way to know the inspiration of a film or scene but today a film can be brutally trolled for copying so many movies that Sholay does (Seven Samurai, The Magnificent Seven, A Fistful of Dollars etc) and this would have impacted the excellent word of mouth that Sholay enjoyed.
Critics- Sholay received mixed to negative reviews in its original run and purely on narrative point of view the film would have received mixed reviews with critics calling it hypermasculine cinema or criticised the lack of emotions in the film or its unoriginality. Critics reviews do not always matter but it does impact the hype of a film.
Most probably Sholay will be able to earn 2000 crores for its Masala movie genre, violence, music and repeat value.